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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, January 25, 2022
The avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline remains generally LOW.
There are two minor things to consider if you are getting into really steep terrain:
  1. The surface snow will sluff when disturbed.
  2. A person can get small wind drifts to crack out.
These issues don't pose much threat, just keep them in mind if you are in steep and or exposed terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
FREE AVALANCHE BEACON AND GEAR TRAINING
Saturday, January 29th: 9am to 12pm
North Skyline Drive parking lot at the top of Fairview Canyon.
Show up anytime between 9am and noon and we will teach you how to effectively use your avalanche beacon. We will also show you probing and digging techniques.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
No big change in conditions recently. Dense powder remains on the north half of the compass. Southerly facing slopes have a sun crust. Overnight temperatures were in the mid teens. Northwest wind has been moderate in speed along the higher terrain over the last day. I looks like it has slowed over the last few hours.
Mountain Weather
A weak weather disturbance is moving through this morning which may produce light snowfall. No real accumulations are expected. It'll be cloudy with daytime high temperatures in the low 20s. North wind should remain fairly light. It looks like high pressure returns for the next week. Weather models are indicating a change in pattern with storms starting to move through starting around Feb 3rd.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Overall, avalanche conditions are fairly safe. Two things I've noticed over the last couple of days is 1) the snow surface is loose enough that a person can initiate sluffing on very steep slopes, and 2) there are small shallow wind drifts scattered about that a person can get to crack out on very steep slopes. Neither of these issues pose much threat as long as you are aware of them before getting onto steep slopes.
Snow surface discussion:
During longer periods of high pressure, avalanche forecasters often are paying attention to what the snow surface is doing. We look for small grains of sugary snow forming in the top few inches. This has definitely happened over the last two weeks of high pressure. The surface feels a little slippery when climbing on skis. It is slightly "loud" with a "swooshing" noise when you ski through it. The track on my snowbike tends to slide out on steep side hills. A person can initiate sluffing on very steep slopes. This all points to the surface becoming loose with small grain "near surface facets". The reason we keep an eye on today's surface is that it may become tomorrow's weak layer once it's buried.
All that said, it may or it may not turn into a significant weak layer that causes avalanches. It all depends on future weather. Strong wind can blow the surface snow around forming stout drifts and crusts which make the loose sugary snow more "spotty" and unevenly distributed. Future storms may stack up snow in a manner where the weak snow never gets the proper load or structure on it to create slab avalanches. It is all very uncertain but one thing is for sure. Long periods of high pressure often result in weak surface snow that can produce avalanches. Therefore, we pay attention to it as it forms and how it behaves after it's buried.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.