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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Monday morning, January 24, 2022
The avalanche danger on the Manti Skyline remains generally LOW.
Human triggered slab avalanches are unlikely today.
The surface snow will sluff on very steep slopes but won't cause much danger as long as you are aware of it.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
FREE AVALANCHE BEACON AND GEAR TRAINING
Saturday, January 29th: 9am to 12pm
North Skyline Drive parking lot at the top of Fairview Canyon.
Show up anytime between 9am and noon and we will teach you how to effectively use your avalanche beacon. We will also show you probing and digging techniques.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Soft powder remains in many places on the north half of the compass. It's a mix of a few inches of newer snow from Thursday and Friday with some "near surface facets" under that. I noted that I could initiate sluffing of the loose surface snow on steep slopes during fieldwork on Sunday. Overnight temperatures were once again inverted with valley bottoms in the teens and higher terrain in the mid 20s. Northwest wind has picked up along the higher ridges but doesn't look like it is getting down into the canyons too much.
Mountain Weather
We have another sunny day on tap with daytime high temperatures in the upper 20s. Northwest wind may feel a bit breezy along higher exposed terrain. A minor weather disturbance will move through tonight and possibly bring a trace to an inch of new snow. High pressure builds back in through the weekend with more mild weather in store.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
During longer periods of high pressure, avalanche forecasters often are paying attention to what the snow surface is doing. We look for small grains of sugary snow forming in the top few inches. This has definitely happened over the last two weeks of high pressure. The surface feels a little slippery when climbing on skis. It is slightly "loud" with a "swooshing" noise when you ski through it. The track on my snowbike tends to slide out on steep side hills. A person can initiate sluffing on very steep slopes. This all points to the surface becoming loose with small grain "near surface facets". The reason we keep an eye on today's surface is that it may become tomorrow's weak layer once it's buried.
All that said, it may or it may not turn into a significant weak layer that causes avalanches. It all depends on future weather. Strong wind can blow the surface snow around forming stout drifts and crusts which make the loose sugary snow more "spotty" and unevenly distributed. Future storms may stack up snow in a manner where the weak snow never gets the proper load or structure on it to create slab avalanches. It is all very uncertain but one thing is for sure. Long periods of high pressure often result in weak surface snow that can produce avalanches. Therefore, we pay attention to it as it forms and how it behaves after it's buried.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.