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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly on
Monday morning, January 16, 2023
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE at upper elevations, where you can expect to trigger small avalanches in the new snow on all aspects over 30 degrees. The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and lower elevations.
New and wind drifted snow avalanches are more than enough to catch, carry, and bury a rider.
Forecasted snowfall and increased wind this afternoon will make decision making in avalanche terrain more difficult as the day goes on.
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Weather and Snow
Low density snow continues to fall in the mountains this morning. Mountain locations are reporting 1-2" of new snow overnight with winds blowing from the south in the mid teens MPH at most locations. There is an off chance of higher winds with some ski area operations reporting rimed wind sensors. Trailhead temperatures are in the mid 20's F while the 9,000' ridgelines are in the mid teens F. For today expect 1-4" snow. More snow possible later this afternoon. Under overcast skies temperatures will be 30-34 F, winds will blow from the south 20 gusting to 25 MPH at the 9,000' ridgelines.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, there were reported avalanches in Hells and Taylor Canyon yesterday that were large enough to bury a person. These avalanches occured during periods of increased snowfall.
Seeing and triggering new snow avalanches is a sign of current instability, if you continue to see new snow avalanches then BACK OFF and find a lower angle slope to travel on.
Check out the observations from yesterday HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You will be able to trigger soft slabs and loose dry avalanches in the new snow today, particularly during periods of higher snowfall rates and on steep terrain at all aspects. It may be harder to trigger an avalanche on this layer today which could lure you out further on a slope. In my travels today I would be digging quick pits to determine if yesterday's instability a foot down from the surface was still present and use this information to make changes to my travel plans.
The question with today's dry loose avalanches in steep terrain isn't if you will trigger an avalanche, but where will you go if there is enough snow to take you off your feet.
Check out this observation from last week of a 5" avalanche that could have had a much worse outcome if the rider had been strained through trees or pushed over a cliff band. I would expect to see similar loose dry avalanches in steep terrain today.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Today, you'll find shallow sensitive soft slabs of wind driven snow. On the surface soft slabs of wind drifted snow may crack out upon approach. At all aspects and elevations above 8,500' feet there are harder drifts of new snow that may allow you to venture further out onto them before they break. These are the places I would use caution and travel one at time into and below avalanche terrain both while ascending and descending slopes.
Cornices will be sensitive today and may break further back than you anticipate.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The PWL is deeply buried and it would require a significant trigger (large cornice or a powerful storm with sustained winds) to avalanche. If an avalanche breaks on this layer it would be 6-10' deep and up to 3,000' wide. An avalanche on this PWL would be very hard to trigger and un-survivable if a human was caught in a slide of this size.
You may notice us chipping away at the PWL layer in the avalanche rose. Do we think that humans will trigger an avalanche on this November PWL today. Probably not- but with new water weight and wind the PWL layer is still hanging on in the back of our minds.
The Gobbler's avalanche is still recent enough that we can't pull this PWL problem from our radar.
General Announcements
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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