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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Greg Gagne
Issued by Greg Gagne on
Sunday morning, January 16, 2022
The avalanche danger is LOW on all aspects and elevations. Watch for snow becoming wet on south-facing slopes, especially in terrain with a lot of exposed rocks. In these isolated areas, there could be some loose wet avalanches.
Avalanches are unlikely today and conditions are generally safe, but low danger DOES NOT mean avalanches are impossible. There could be unstable snow in isolated areas.
Maintain routine safe travel protocols of only exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain. If you were to trigger a slide, your only hope of surviving will be having partners watching you from a safe location.
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Weather and Snow
This morning temperatures are in the upper 20s and low 30s F at the upper elevations and in the upper teens in the lower elevations where cold air pools. Winds from the west and have increased since Saturday afternoon, averaging in the teens with gusts in the 20's along mid-elevation ridges. At the upper-most ridgelines of the Ogden Skyline, winds are averaging in the 20's with gusts in the 30's mph.
Today will be a repeat of yesterday with sunshine, warm temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s F, and light to moderate winds out of the west.
Looking ahead, no major storms are in the long term forecasts; however, cooler air should arrive on Tues/Wed with maybe a trace of snow.
Most slopes below 7,500' have a rain crust. Above that elevation, winds have damaged the snow surface of many exposed slopes. That said, soft snow can still be found mostly in wind and sun-sheltered slopes.
Clear skies make a huge difference in keeping the snow from heating up much. Yesterday at the Atwater Study Plot in upper Little Cottonwood Canyon, a temperature sensor of the snow surface showed the snow reaching 32 degrees for only about an hour around 2 p.m. before quickly cooling down to 1 degree F by 4 a.m. this morning. The graph of these temperatures below shows a huge difference between air temperature and snow surface temperature.
Recent Avalanches
The most recent avalanche activity was some wet loose avalanches in south facing terrain five days ago.
Although centric to the Salt Lake mountains, our Week in Review has been published.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The persistent weak layer of faceted snow down near the ground is now dormant. Yesterday, my partner and I were on Ben Lomond and found this weak layer continuing to gain strength with a strong, 2-4' slab on top of the faceted layer . For these reasons, large, hard slab avalanches breaking on this persistent weak layer are unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Places where the snow will heat up and become wet will be south-facing chutes, couloirs, and gullies where the snow is surrounded by rocks that absorb strong sunshine and transmit that heat into the snow. Watch for the snow becoming wet in these isolated areas where wet loose avalanches may occur if you see pinwheels and snowballs rolling downhill with increasing frequency.
As seen in the graph of air temperature and snow surface temperature above, clear skies keep the snow cool even when the air temperatures warm up a lot. Snow loses a tremendous amount of heat by emitting long wave radiation into clear skies. Despite the warm air temperatures, this cooling will keep the snow from becoming very wet on many slopes.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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