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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Trent Meisenheimer
Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Tuesday morning, December 14, 2021
Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger exist on all steep northwest to east-facing slopes at the upper elevations. This terrain is to be avoided.
You can trigger 1-2' deep avalanches today while on, above, below, or adjacent to steep terrain.

Sensitive hard and soft wind drifts will continue to develop in steep terrain over the next 24 hours. Natural avalanches will be possible with extensive wind drifting.
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Special Announcements
Watch out if traveling in the backcountry near ski areas. Please be aware of and respect their boundaries. Many resorts are working on opening their terrain and using explosives in those areas.
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Weather and Snow
Currently, the skies are clear, and the upper elevation mountain temperatures are 30-35 °F above about 7,500'. Winds continue to crank across the upper elevation ridgelines blowing from the south with speeds of 25-35 mph, gusting into the 50's and 60's. Currently, Ogden Peak is blowing south at speeds of 50-60 mph gusting into the 80's. Yesterday afternoon, Hidden Peak (11,000') recorded a wind gust at 103 mph. Speeds of 96-110 mph define a category two hurricane. Impressive!
Today, we can expect increasing clouds and temperatures climbing into the upper 20's to the low 30's °F at about 8,500' in elevation. As a large-scale storm approaches Northern Utah, the southerly winds will remain strong, with speeds in the 25-35 mph range for much of the day. We could see gusts at the highest elevations hitting the triple digits again.
It's a one-two punch, with the first storm starting this evening around the dinner hour. The southerly winds finally back to the west and slow in speed as the front crosses overhead around 11:00 pm. By Wednesday morning, we could see 10"-15" of new snow (0.80"-1.0" water). A brief lull throughout the day on Wednesday will allow the second wave to move in later in the evening, lasting into Friday with another 5"-8" of new snow (0.40"-0.60" water). In total, we could see anywhere from 15"-25" inches of new snow over the next couple of days.
Video: Loop of the 500 millibar height / 500 millibar Vorticity showing both storms impacting Northern Utah with a precip total at the end.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported from the Ogden backcountry. Many backcountry observers in the Cottonwoods continue to note booming collapses and shooting cracks. Regularly check the observations page for field observations and avalanche activity.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
South and southwest winds will continue and have created sensitive and stubborn wind slabs on many steep slopes, even at the mid-elevations and on mid-slope terrain features. I anticipate drifts to be primarily west to north to easterly aspects, but they may be found around the compass. Drifts are generally round and smooth and sometimes 'scalloped.' Sometimes they sound hollow like a drum. Look for and avoid rounded pillowy-looking snow. Wind drifts may break out well above you.
Note: that any triggered wind slab may step down another 12-24" into older faceted weak layering from October/November, creating a much larger avalanche. Natural avalanches may be possible today.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Thanks in large part to Doug Wewer and Derek DeBruin, we know that some old weak faceted snow exists in the higher sheltered elevations above roughly 8000' (conservative estimate). With enough wind drifting, these old layers may become reactive as weak layers for avalanching. Cracking and collapsing are signs of instability but may not always be present.
If you're heading to upper elevation slopes on the northern half of the compass, it will be essential to stick to low-angle slopes with nothing steep above you. Unfortunately, we have a dangerous snowpack right now, and we should not trust it. Avoidance is key. Remember, avalanche terrain is any slope over 30 degrees in steepness.
General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.