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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, March 25, 2022
A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes above 9500' that face west, north and east.
Human triggered avalanches breaking 3 feet deep in these locations are likely.
Warm temperatures could cause natural avalanches breaking into the buried weak snow from Jan/Feb.
As temperatures heat up today, the safest bet is just to avoid steep terrain. Things are fairly unpredictable right now.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Warm temperatures into the mid 40s and sun on Thursday made the snow damp on all aspects and elevations except the highest more northerly facing terrain. It was slightly breezy but I stood on a peak at 11,000 and wasn't bothered by it. Overnight temperatures stayed mild with most stations only dropping into the mid 30s. Skies were mostly clear so this morning the snow surface will probably still be frozen up just from the radiation loss.
Mountain Weather
The warming trend continues with highs into the 50s today. Wind will be light to moderate in speed from the southwest. Temperatures get even slightly warmer on Saturday and Sunday. A storm system will move through mid week next week bringing some snow. This is a large closed low pressure system that will drift through the southwest US. It's hard to say how much snow to expect before we know where the storm system will track through.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We have a buried Persistent Weak Layer of facets from Jan/Feb that is about 3' deep into the snowpack. This has caused numerous avalanches over the last month. I am still avoiding steep northerly facing slopes. This period of warm temperatures is playing a role. In the long run, I'm hopeful that these warm temperatures are enough to stabilize the snowpack. In the short term, the warm temperatures could make things more unstable. It is tricky to forecast for heat initiated avalanches but here's what I know:
  1. We have a buried weak layer about 3' down in the snowpack that remains unstable.
  2. We will have very warm temperatures from now through the weekend.
These two factors often will produce natural avalanches. Continue to use extra caution if you are going into the mountains. It is wise to just avoid all the steep slopes while the persistent weak layer remains active.
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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