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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, February 20, 2022
There is a "pockety" MODERATE avalanche danger on the Skyline. Small human triggered avalanches involving the new snow are possible in isolated locations. These won't pose much threat unless you are on very steep radical terrain with consequences below like rocks, cliffs or trees that you could get pushed into.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
Saturday was another gorgeous day in the mountains with plenty of sun and decent riding conditions. Southerly wind started picking up in the afternoon and spiked in speed overnight. It's slowed again for now. The sun warmed southerly facing slopes again on Saturday and temperatures stayed mild overnight with readings in the upper 20s to around 30˚F.
Mountain Weather
Today we'll see sunny skies to start and mild temperatures again. Clouds will start to move in mid day and southwest wind speeds will start to increase and could get strong by the end of the day. We have a prolonged period of stormy weather this week. The first impulse will be Monday afternoon which should bring 4 to 8 inches of new snow. A secondary wave Tuesday night through Wednesday should bring a similar amount. I'm a little questionable about how the second half of this storm system will shake out mid week as we will be directly under the center of the low pressure system. This usually isn't a great spot to be in for good amounts of new snow. Regardless, things look active for most of the week with numerous periods of snow that should stack up fairly decently.
Recent Avalanches
There was one natural avalanche reported on Saturday that released either earlier in the day or perhaps on Friday. Heating from the sun may have been the trigger. It was a shallow soft slab. The weak layer wasn't confirmed but my money is that a layer of near surface facets was the culprit. This is on an east northeast facing slope in the Big Horseshoe at about 10,900'.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Description
I continued to prowl around and investigate how the new snow is behaving on top of the loose sugary facets that formed over the last month. I don't like it. There are a lot of areas that have very loose faceted snow underneath about 6 inches of snow that fell on Wednesday. This faceted snow is going to act as a weak layer as we stack up more snow especially if the storms come through this week. In simple terms, we are going to need to adjust our behavior and back off steep slopes. We've had a long period of LOW avalanche danger and we've been able to get onto lots of steep slopes with little worry. It seems pretty likely that avalanche conditions are going to get more dangerous this week and we won't be able to just punch any steep slope we want to anymore.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.