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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Friday morning, December 23, 2022
Recent strong wind has transported and deposited snow into drifts and slabs that are scattered about the mountains. Some of these will be sensitive to the weight of a person and could avalanche.
The avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on the upper elevation north through southeast facing slopes due to recent wind loading of snow.
In areas where the wind hasn't transported and deposited snow, the avalanche danger is MODERATE.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The wind really did a number on the surface conditions yesterday. You'll find varying wind crusts mixed in with areas of softer "punchy" snow. The wind has slowed a bunch and is in the light to moderate speed category from the west. Temperatures have stayed pretty steady in the mid teens to around 20˚F. There is light snowfall happening this morning with no accumulation.
Mountain Weather: Snowfall probably won't last long and I'm not anticipating much if any accumulation. High clouds will move out today but low level moisture may keep clouds over the mountains through the day. Temperatures should get into the mid 20s and wind from the west will be light to moderate in speed. We should see partly cloudy skies with gradually warming temperatures through the weekend. Looking longer term, weather models are still advertising a number of storms starting around Tuesday of next week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I continue to monitor the buried Persistent Weak Layer of loose faceted snow from November. It's still there and remains a concern. The immediate concern is in places where the wind has transported and deposited snow into drifts and slabs. These places are the most likely places to trigger an avalanche that breaks into the weak layer. The tricky thing is recognizing these places. They are scattered about kind of like land mines. Personally, I just continue to avoid slopes steeper than 30˚ right now. If you notice fresh drifts on steep slopes, avoid them.
During fieldwork on Thursday I performed numerous snow pit tests. The results were somewhat stubborn but the weak layer still breaks clean with energetic propagation. This tells me that the snowpack is not completely stable yet. We will need to keep an eye on it especially if significant storms move in next week.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.