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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Monday morning, December 19, 2022
The avalanche danger is rated at CONSIDERABLE again today.
Chances for triggering an avalanche are becoming less likely but it is still a very real possibility.
My personal travel technique is to continue avoiding the steep slopes until I'm satisfied that the buried weak layer is stable.
I don't feel like we are there yet.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Sunday was another beautiful day in the mountains with great riding conditions, high temperatures in the low 20s and light west wind. It looks like the west wind has bumped up just slightly in speed this morning.
Mountain Weather: We'll have another nice day today with highs again in the low 20s and light to moderate speed westerly wind. Clouds will move in Tuesday and it looks like we might see a small storm roll through on Wednesday night that could bring a few inches of snow. Another small storm is shaping up for this weekend. Overall, the weather pattern continues to look active through the long range.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The November Persistent Weak Layer of sugary facets (DETAILS HERE) is still our biggest threat in the backcountry. However, it's not all doom and gloom. Stability is improving slowly. The buried sugary weak snow is not as loose as it once was. Sunday was the first day that we did not experience collapsing (whumpfing) of the snowpack underneath us. Snow pit stability tests produced stubborn results meaning it was hard to get them to fail (good news!!). HOWEVER, once they failed, they still cracked and propagated cleanly through the weak layer (bad news). We are not out of the woods yet. We really need some more snow to add weight which will continue to slowly smash the sugary facets into a stronger layer of snow. Stay tuned, it ain't over yet.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.