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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, January 7, 2023
The overall avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE today.
The chances for human triggered avalanches are becoming less but if you trigger one, it's going to be deep and nasty.
Continue to avoid the steeper slopes especially on the north half of the compass in the upper elevations.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Riding conditions remain excellent. DON'T LET THAT CLOUD YOUR JUDGMENT when making terrain decisions today. A few more inches of snow trickled in during the day on Friday. The wind was from the west in the moderate speed range. It was drifting snow. The wind has really calmed down now. Temperatures were in the 20s Friday and dropped into the low to mid teens overnight.
Mountain Weather: This morning's mostly clear skies will yield to high clouds building in. Temperatures will get into the mid 20s. Wind will shift and be from the south and increase in speed a bit. Anticipate light to moderate speeds. Sunday looks similar to today with slightly stronger wind. The next storm is shaping up and should be moving in Monday night into Tuesday. Weather models are suggesting a good amount of snow through the middle of the week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer from November remains the biggest threat. Here are some thoughts on this:
  • There have been no reports of any avalanches since Monday.
  • There have been no reports of cracking or collapsing.
  • Snow stability tests are stubborn and it's hard to get the snow to crack but when it does, the old weak layer still fractures clean and propagates.
  • The old November weak layer has gained some strength but still remains somewhat loose in many locations.
We are through the worst period for avalanche danger. Things will only get better from here out. BUT, there are still places where you can trigger an avalanche and it is very difficult to determine which slopes will stay put and which ones will slide.
Additional Information
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This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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