Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Monday morning, March 27, 2023

A HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER currently exists in the Ogden area mountains. Natural and human triggered avalanches in the new snow are very likely in steep terrain of all aspects. The danger will probably peak this morning.

Heavy snowfall and strong winds over the past few days have created a layered and conditionally unstable snowpack. Caution is essential today on all aspects and elevations.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

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Weather and Snow

The Ogden skyline has seen radical snowfall rates with the lake effect this morning, with ski patrol teams reporting 20-24" of low density snow overnight! Winds are moderate at the mid and upper elevations out of the west. Temps are in the single digits and low teens.

We should be seeing "peak" snowfall and winds this morning. We'll start to dry out (if only for a day or two) and possibly see a touch of blue by afternoon. Winds will lose steam and average 15mph along the high ridgelines.

Tuesday will be a bit of a break ahead of the next prolonged storm system that will bring at-times heavy snowfall Wednesday afternoon through Friday. 1-2' can be expected. The next storm is forecast for late weekend.

Recent Avalanches

We didn't hear of any avalanche activity yesterday. That will change for today.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

It just keeps snowing. High snowfall rates this morning will lead to very sensitive loose dry and soft slab avalanches in the steepest terrain this morning. Natural loose sluffs are reported as of 6am. Avoid avalanche terrain this morning. This includes runout zones.

The snowpack is more rich, complex, and interesting than I want it to be right now. Avalanches may fail within the new snow or at the new snow/old snow interface (2-4' down) as we saw near the Ant Knolls above Heber/Midway on Saturday. It has also been reported that some new snow avalanches have then stepped down to this older interface from last week.

I plan to stick to low angle slopes until the snowpack stabilizes.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

New and old soft slabs 1-2'+ deep of wind drifted snow can be triggered in steep terrain today, particularly on steep north to east to south facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Long time and trusted backcountry observer Andy Paradis well described the situation yesterday, "Today's snow plus multiple different loading directions created sort of a complex snowpack that is not visually obvious." It'll be key to avoid recently wind drifted slopes today.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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