Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer on
Wednesday morning, March 2, 2022

The avalanche danger will quickly rise to MODERATE on mid and upper elevation slopes facing east through south and west, where natural and human-triggered wet-loose avalanches will become possible.

There is also a MODERATE avalanche danger for triggering soft slabs up to a foot deep, failing on a buried persistent weak layer on mid and upper elevation steep slopes facing northwest through north and east.

Low

Moderate

Considerable

High

Extreme

Learn how to read the forecast here

Special Announcements

A Couple of good events this week:

Join Craig Gordon at Alpha Coffee for a State of the Snowpack presentation. Wednesday, March 2, 6:30 PM.
Please join us for a KBYG presentation hosted by KUHL on Thursday, March 3rd, from 6:30 - 8:00 PM.

Weather and Snow

Currently, across the upper elevations, winds are blowing from the west-southwest at speeds of 5-15 mph, with some stations gusting to 20 mph. Mountain Temperatures at 9,500' are at a balmy 36 °F.

As the ridge overhead continues to break down ahead of two approaching storm systems, we will see a slight increase in west-southwest winds today and some high to mid-level clouds passing over the peaks. Mountain temperatures will climb into the upper 40's and low 50's °F today. The winds will continue to be from the west-southwest and blow at speeds of 10-20 mph throughout the day.

The much anticipated weekend storm is still slated to impact Utah over the weekend, and the big question is... how much snow will we get? Well, my guess is anywhere from 6-40" of new snow by Monday. I am only sort of joking as the models continue to try and converge on a solution. By Monday, the video below shows roughly 12-15" of new snow (1.2" water). The famous plumes show a mean solution of 20-25" (1.5" water) of new snow. I suppose time will tell.

Recent Avalanches

No new observations came in from the Ogden backcountry. Resort snow safety teams reported another round of small wet loose avalanches as the sun heated the southerly terrain. Outside of heat-related issues and further south of Ogden, there were two avalanches of interest yesterday. The first was in Yellow Jacket in Millcreek Canyon, and the second was on Mt. Nebo. Mt Nebo was a bit of a surprise for me, and I think it's a heads up of things to come if we see significant water from this weekend's storm. Be sure to check out all the observations HERE.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Overnight many weather stations did not dip below freezing, causing the snowpack to likely not fully re-freeze overnight. This means the wet activity can start faster this morning, especially once the sun warms the southerly facing terrain, loosening the bonds between the grains as the snow surface becomes damp. With enough direct sun and warming temperatures, the snow can lose all its strength and begin to slide down steep terrain naturally. Like Bruce Tremper say's " if you want to bake a cake faster, turn the heat up."

If you're in sunny terrain and the snow surface is wet and unsupportable to your weight, it's time to change aspects or head home. Rollerballs/pinwheels are generally the first sign of unstable wet snow. Natural and human-triggered loose wet avalanches are possible today.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

The January/February drought resulted in weak, faceted snow along many snow surfaces, and in Ogden was covered by roughly 6-12" of snow and wind drifting from the past week.

Avalanches failing on this persistent weak layer have been failing as soft slabs roughly 6-12 inches deep and up to 60 feet wide. These avalanches are confined to isolated terrain features where the slab is slightly stiffer, just like we saw yesterday in Millcreek.

It also seems the most suspect terrain is the mid to upper elevation sheltered slopes that did not see any wind or sun during our long dry spell, making the surface facets that much weaker, as seen in this observation HERE. Cracking and Collapsing is a bullseye clue to unstable snow and should not be ignored.

I am uncertain how the overnight temperatures and warming has or will affect the snow on the mid and upper elevation shady slopes. Therefore I am being cautious with the MODERATE danger rating here. The warming temperatures are changing the game, and I would now approach steep northerly facing terrain with caution.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures