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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Saturday morning, February 26, 2022
A MODERATE danger exists in the Ogden mountains. Human triggered sluffs and soft slab avalanches are possible, particularly in areas that have seen the most snowfall. Cracking and collapsing are signs of instability.
I would not be surprised to see a few very close calls today.
Low
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Weather and Snow
Skiing and riding conditions are the best they've been in two months.
Skies are clear with light northwest winds in the mountains. Temperatures are on either side of 0°F this morning.
Today we'll have clear skies, light northwest wind and temperatures rising to the low 20s. Warmer temperatures tomorrow with perhaps a few clouds in the afternoon. Dry and mild temperatures through the week with mid-week temps possibly reaching into the low to mid-40s. A storm is possible for Friday.
Recent Avalanches
There were seven human triggered avalanches in the central Wasatch and only one reported in the Ogden mountains. This one was in the Snowbasin backcountry of Hells Canyon on a steep northerly slope at 7000' (photo below). The soft slab avalanche was only 6" deep but it was 100' wide. Long time observer Bill Brandt noted lots of sluffing and some cracking in the Ben Lomond area. Ski areas reported triggering loose snow avalanches and wind slabs in the highest elevation terrain yesterday.
Greg Gagne's Week in Review is published and can be found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I suspect there may be a few booby traps out there. We have 6-12" of fresh snow over the past couple of days sitting over some crusts and very weak snow on the shady aspects. We know that we have weak snow; it's just that we don't know if we have enough new snow to tip the balance. Cracking and collapsing are signs of instability and snow tests are helpful. There is a lot of variability and uncertainty about this unstable layering so I would recommend staying on lower angle terrain with nothing steep above.
My observation in Broads Fork of BCC yesterday looks at this more in depth HERE.
What to Do?
  • If the game is rigged, choose not to play. In other words, owing to the high uncertainty and the nature of the problem, choose low angle slopes with nothing steep above. We rode low angle northerly terrain yesterday and it was the best in two months.
  • Choose aspects that do not harbor the PWL: we know that northwest through east aspects harbor the PWL. West to southwest to south to southeast aspects do not harbor the PWL and these aspects will ride nearly as well today.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You can trigger loose snow avalanches in the steepest terrain today. These sluffs tend to move at your feet or machine and entrain more loose snow as it moves downhill. These sluffs can pile up deeply if they run in continuously steep and confined terrain.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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