Forecast: Ogden Area Mountains - Utah Avalanche Center

Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Issued by Mark Staples on
Wednesday morning, November 10, 2021

Tuesday's storm delivered up to 8 inches of dense snow accompanied by winds from both the south and west. Wednesday morning soft slabs of both wind drifted snow and new snow could be triggered but should be stabilizing through the day.

A few things to remember:

Triggering any avalanche regardless of its size can produce serious trauma even if it doesn't bury you because the snowpack is so thin.
Hitting rocks and stumps is a real danger. Don't end your season before it starts with an injury from hitting one of these obstacles.
Early season avalanches are a real possibility. It doesn't matter if you are hiking, hunting, skiing, etc., be prepared with the correct rescue gear and a partner. Many people have died during early season snowstorms.
Ski resorts all have different uphill travel policies. These closed resorts that allow uphill travel can be great places to get in a little skiing especially in you know of a rock-free slope, but it should be treated as backcountry terrain.

We will be issuing intermittent updates and publishing backcountry observations as they arrive. When we begin regular forecasts, we will begin issuing avalanche danger ratings.

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Weather and Snow

Precipitation started on Tuesday at 10 a.m. with rain in the valleys and snow above 7,000'. Snowfall was heavy at times totaling 5-8 inches of very dense snow (0.6-1.2" water) that may have been mostly graupel.

Temperatures dropped 7 degrees F on average since yesterday. Wednesday morning temperatures are near or above freezing at 7,000' and in the mid to upper 20s F above 9,000'.

Winds shifted direction during the storm, blowing from the south and then from the west. They have been averaging 10-15 mph gusting 30-40 mph at ridgelines at 9,000 ft.

Upcoming weather: On Wednesday, winds should ease some before increasing again Wednesday night. Temperatures should generally remain cool and not heat up much. A little bit of snow may fall Wednesday night and some riming may occur as well. The long term forecast generally looks dry, but we'll see.

Total snow depths on high elevation north facing slopes are maybe a foot or a little more at best. The snow under Tuesday's new snow is likely hard, dense, refrozen snow on most slopes. Further south, we have found some near surface faceting at the highest elevations, and that may have occurred in a few places in the Ogden area mountains. A lot will change in coming weeks. We are more concerned about what will happen to Tuesday's snow if a long period of high pressure and dry weather occurs.

Recent Avalanches

No avalanches have been observed or reported. Please let us know if you see any and submit an observation here.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

Winds on Tuesday started blowing from the south. As the storm progressed they shifted and were blowing from the west on Wednesday morning. I think fresh slabs of wind drifted snow near ridgelines would be easy to find and easy to trigger for the next 24-48 hours.

The dilemma is that where these wind slabs exist are often the slopes where we want to ride this time of year because they have the best snow cover. I doubt they would produce an avalanche large enough to bury a person (unless they involve a terrain trap), but they will likely cause trauma and end your season.

Two observers (Collett & Wessler) filmed the winds yesterday morning further south in Little Cottonwood Canyon at about 9800 feet and shared the video below.

Type

Location

Likelihood

Size

Description

During periods of heavy snowfall Tuesday night, there were likely many soft slabs of new snow that released or could have been easily triggered. I'm unsure how quickly the new snow will be settling and bonding to itself. I wouldn't be surprised to hear of some soft slabs triggered this morning, but I would be surprised by Wednesday afternoon.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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