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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty on
Thursday morning, January 13, 2022
Areas of MODERATE danger exist on mid and upper elevation aspects facing northwest to north and east where it is possible to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche that may break down 2-5' deep and up to hundreds of feet wide.

Although all other aspects have a LOW danger, as the day heats up watch for small wet-loose avalanches in steep southerly-facing terrain and have an exit plan that allows you to quickly respond to wet snow activity.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Skies are clear and winds are light from the southwest. Mountain temperatures are in the upper 20s and low 30s. The mid-elevation thermal belt has temps in the upper 30s.
For today, we'll see warm air continue to stream into the state along with a bump in southwest winds. Temperatures will again reach into the 30s and 40s in the mountains.
Tonight's cold front will bring about immediate relief to the temperature regime in the mountains AND improve the air conditions in the valleys but it's a mostly dry cold front and we'll be lucky to see a trace of snow.
High pressure and warm temperatures quickly rebound for the weekend. And beyond.
Wind, sun, and rime crusts dominate the landscape, but soft settled recrystallized powder can be found in the protected northerly terrain. Travel is easy and while powder is scarce, the aesthetic in you can find good things in the mountains.
Recent Avalanches
None
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is a persistent weak layer (PWL) of old faceted snow near the ground with 2-5' of snow on top of it. This PWL exists on mid and upper elevation slopes facing west through north and east. It does not exist on south-facing slopes as any early season snow melted away and December snowfall landed on bare ground. This PWL has been fracturing and producing large, dangerous avalanches over the past few weeks.
These avalanches are currently tricky because they don't always offer immediate signs of instability and it's easy to be lured onto slopes with other tracks, particularly when snow depths and snow tests might be pointing in the direction of "stable".
The persistent weak layer is slowly gaining strength and adjusting to the dense, deep slab on top. We are moving farther and farther away from our last know loading event, in the form of wind loading or new snowfall, and seeing less reported avalanche activity on this layer. What this means is the likelihood that a human could trigger an avalanche that fails in the PWL is continuing to decrease, but the consequences of a deep and deadly avalanche still remain high. This remains particularly possible in areas that the slab atop the facets is thinner, such as steep rocky terrain where the overall snowpack is thinner or on an old repeater slope that still has facets at the ground. While we are trending in the right direction and getting closer to an overall LOW danger, we are not out of the woods yet, and I would continue to be cautious of traveling on or below steep northwest through north through east facing slopes.

Photos from North Fork Park shows that the angular snow grains are beginning to round, but overall the poor snowpack structure still exists.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.