December 18, 2019
Week in Review: Dec 13 - 19, 2019.
Greg Gagne
Our Week in Review highlights significant snowfall, weather, and avalanche events of the previous week. (Click here to review the archived forecasts for the Salt Lake mountains.)
The danger roses for the Salt Lake mountains from Friday, December 13 through Thursday, December 19, 2019:
Summary: A strong, windy, and wet storm system entered the region on Thursday, December 12, and by the time the system departed on Sunday morning, storm totals included:
- Little Cottonwood Canyon: 31" snow (3.6" water)
- Big Cottonwood Canyon: 35" snow (3.5" water)
- …
Read more December 13, 2019
UAC Podcast - Betting Your Life - Why Forecasting is Poker and Not Chess - A Conversation with Jenna Malone
Ben Bombard
In this podcast, we sit down with Jenna Malone. At this fall's Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop, Jenna gave a compelling presentation on why avalanche decision making is more like poker than chess. In essence, with chess, we can see all the different pieces of the puzzle; one only needs to "outsmart" her opponent. Poker, on the other hand, involves a little bit of luck and the uncertainty of what cards your opponent holds. Not everything is revealed. Inspired by champion poker player Annie Duke's book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, …
Read more December 11, 2019
Why are some slopes more dangerous than others?
Mark Staples
NOTE: This blog post was written in December 2019 when there was similar weak snow at the ground to December 2020 except when this blog was written, there was a slab of snow on all slopes. This slab was an avalanche problem where the weak snow existed underneath it. As of December 5, 2020, most mountain areas in Utah have weak snow at the ground but no slab on top of it to produce an avalanche.
In many areas of Utah, the main avalanche problem that is causing large deadly avalanches is a slab of snow resting on a persistent weak layer of faceted snow. That's a mouthful. What …
Read more December 11, 2019
Week in Review: December 5 - 12, 2019
Greg Gagne
Our Week in Review highlights significant snowfall, weather, and avalanche events of the previous week. (Click here to review the archived forecasts for the Salt Lake mountains.)
The danger roses for the Salt Lake mountains from Friday, December 6 through Thursday, December 12, 2019:
Summary: Continued avalanching in weak snow down near the ground on mid and upper elevation northerly aspects. A decent storm system on Sunday delivers 6-12" of dense snow/graupel containing 0.8-1.5" water. A multi-day storm commences on Thursday, with additional dense snow totaling 4-8" …
Read more December 5, 2019
Week in Review: Nov 29 - Dec 5, 2019.
Greg Gagne
Our Week in Review highlights significant snowfall, weather, and avalanche events of the previous week. (Click here to review the archived forecasts for the Salt Lake mountains.)
The danger roses for the Salt Lake mountains from Friday, November 29 through Thursday, December 5, 2019:
Summary: A storm system moved into the state over the Thanksgiving holiday period, bringing several rounds of heavy snow through Saturday, with an avalanche warning through Sunday.
By Sunday morning, storm totals include:
Cottonwood Canyons 50-70" snow (3.5-4.3" …
Read more December 4, 2019
Speeding - A Drift into Failure story
Drew Hardesty
Not long ago, I found that I was running late to a talk I was to give at Black Diamond in Salt Lake City. I stepped on the gas, running through traffic, stop-signs and lights to get there on time and soon saw the unmistakable red, white, and blue lights in the rear view mirror.
"What's the hurry," asked the cop after he had pulled me over, "where you headed?"
My response, dripping with irony, was that I was headed across town to give a talk on risk management and decision making. I was spared the ticket.
For the rest of the drive, and for that matter, the following weeks, I …
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